After breaking new records in more than two and a half years during the Asian session, crude prices fell back on Monday, June 28, penalized by the spread of the Delta variant and while the highly anticipated OPEC + peak is looming. A barrel of North Sea Brent for August delivery ended at $ 74.68 in London, down 1.97% or $ 1.80 from Friday’s close. In New York, a barrel of WTI for the same month lost 1.54% or 1.14 dollars, to 72.81 dollars. Brent and WTI touched $ 76.60 and $ 74.45 earlier today, a first since October 2018, before declining.
It. In question, “forecasts of recovery of the demand for oil during the summer perhaps a little overestimated”, estimates Louise Dickson, analyst of Rystad. Investors “find themselves faced with a return to reality this week, as the Delta variant affects Europe and a surge of contaminations in Southeast Asia and Australia causes further lockdowns,” he adds. The market is also awaiting the summit of the thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their ten allies via the OPEC + agreement scheduled for Thursday, during which the cartel must decide on its level of production as of the month of August, or even beyond.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com expects “a production increase of half a million barrels per day”, an estimate widely shared in the market. Moreover, “it seems unlikely that the United States will lift sanctions against Iran in the near future,” he adds.
France called on Tehran on Monday to restore “immediately” and “full” access to its sites to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while a provisional compromise between the two parties expired on June 24. This question is part of the broader framework of the ongoing talks to try to save the international Iranian nuclear agreement concluded in Vienna in 2015 but torpedoed in 2018 by the United States’ withdrawal.
For oil investors, whether the sanctions that currently prevent Iran from exporting its production will be lightened, which would drastically change the balance of the black gold market and weigh on prices.