While the executive is trying to complete its budget for 2022, a large part of the room for maneuver should go to ministries whose increased resources are provided for by programming laws. The “Ségur de la Santé” will also continue to have an impact on public accounts.
The year 2022 must mark the end of “whatever the cost”. But it will not mean a return to total frugality for the public accounts. Numerous spending increases are already planned for next year, due to several programming laws concerning important ministries. Bercy will therefore have great difficulty in curbing the increase in “ordinary” public spending excluding Covid, which represents 41 billion euros according to the recent calculation of the High Council of Public Finance.
Review of details of upcoming increases.
The military budget is still growing
The recent forum of anonymous soldiers has raised questions about a possible malaise between the power in place and the soldiers. Yet these have been particularly well treated since the start of the five-year term, from a budgetary point of view. The military programming law passed at the end of 2018 has already increased the resources allocated to the army from 32.4 billion in 2017 to 39.2 billion in 2021. This should continue in 2022, with a further increase of 1.7 billion.
The most complicated effort, however, is referred to the next government team, including a planned increase of 3 billion for 2023. The rest for 2024 and 2025 – normally of the same order of magnitude – has yet to be confirmed.
Pampered justice and security
For several months, the government has been trying to show muscle in matters of sovereignty. This notably involves additional resources for Justice and Security missions. The budget of the first is supposed to increase to 8.3 billion next year according to the programming law passed two years ago, an increase of 300 million, and this in addition to possible extensions.
Beside, the Security mission must continue to benefit from the planned increase in staff, supposed to expand by 10,000 positions between 2018 and 2022 (7,500 in the police, 2,500 in the gendarmerie). This is in addition to the salary protocols signed in 2016 and 2018, which “will have resulted in an additional cost of 713.8 million euros” cumulatively in 2022 according to a recent report from the Court of Auditors, which sees it as a “degradation of the sustainability of public spending ”.
Scaling up for research
Long debated, the programming law for research voted in 2020 is beginning to make its budgetary effects felt. Thus it provides for a further increase in resources of 548 million euros in 2022, or a total of 905 million since 2020. Over ten years, the increase expected from 2021 is 5.105 billion euros.
· The lingering effects of “Ségur de la santé”
Endorsed in the summer of 2020, a few weeks after the applause fed to the balconies in honor of the caregivers, the “Ségur de la santé” promises to have lasting effects on public accounts. There will of course be a massive investment plan of 19 billion euros, which should weigh on the accounts for a few years. But above all, the revaluation of the salaries of nursing staff constitutes a lasting expense for the public accounts. In 2021, this represented 6.3 billion euros, after 1.4 billion in 2020, or 7.7 billion in total. A final step is scheduled for 2022, which should increase this level to more than 8.2 billion.